The Elephant in the Room
The property podcast for the thinking person.

Episodes

Episode 296: What Combination of Factors Leads to Reliable Property Price Forecasts?

Have you ever wondered what it truly requires to become a property forecaster? The surface might suggest economics degrees and positions in prestigious financial institutions, but the accuracy of their predictions often seem to miss the mark by a mile. So, what gives? Are there hidden puzzle pieces they're not seeing or just ignoring?

In a world where economic indicators and banking reports often fall short in painting an accurate property market portrait, let's venture beyond the surface-level analysis. Are there hidden variables that escape mainstream attention? Could it be that forecasters are sidelining crucial factors in their projections?

Our guest today is none other than Louis Christopher, a distinguished figure in the realm of property research. With the inception of SQM Research in 2006 and his pivotal role at the Australian Property Monitors before that, Louis has carved out a reputation for his astute market outlooks and precise predictions.

Buckle up as we challenge the conventional wisdom of property forecasting and probe into the core drivers of real estate valuation. Let's break things down, and get a whole new perspective on what really makes property prices tick – or tank.

Episode Highlights:

00:00 - Introduction

01:13 - Our guest for today…

03:38 - Why aren’t banks getting the forecasts accurate?

07:45 - The rental stress and the housing crisis

13:57 - How property listings are affecting property forecasts?

16:53 - Economists when predicting housing trends

20:21 - What most property data experts miss out on

24:16 - What happened to property prices back in 1990

26:43 - Base case forecasts in November 2022

28:34 - How Louis puts together his forecasts

32:47 - How low inflation could impact property prices in 2024

35:10 - What leading indicators influence the housing market?

38:25 - Consumer confidence and the housing market

42:20 - Consumer confidence and consumer spending

47:28 - Resilience in the market

49:04 - The impact of the interest rate cliff on the housing market

52:13 - Should APRA step in and restrict borrowing capacity?

57:16 - Impact of stamp duty on property prices

58:48 - Louis Christopher’s property dumbo

About Our Guest:

Louis Christopher established SQM Research in 2006. He was Head of Research and General Manager of the property statistics agency, Australian Property Monitors (APM) for six years. During his time at APM, Louis constructed key residential property market indexes published by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Prior to APM Louis spent three years at the Securities Institute of Australia as a Technical Editor. Louis previously spent 18 months at MLC working in the investment services. He is widely respected for the quality and accuracy of his market outlooks, ratings philosophy and forecasts for the Australian residential property market.

Connect with Louis Christopher:

Resources:

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Chris Batesde-index