The Elephant in the Room
The property podcast for the thinking person.

Episodes

Episode 317: Why Are Housing Prices Rising Amidst an Affordability Crisis?

Have you ever wondered why, despite the widely recognised affordability crisis in Australia, housing prices continue to soar? This puzzling situation raises questions about how the housing market works and what it means for those trying to buy a home or invest in property.

In today's episode, we talk to senior economist Paul Ryan from REA Group’s PropTrack. Paul's been digging into real estate trends for quite a while, and he's got a practical grasp of the subject. His straightforward insights into what's driving housing prices gives us a clear picture of the current market.

If you'd like to understand why homes are becoming more expensive even in the face of affordability concerns, or maybe you're curious about the disconnect between affordability and rising prices, this episode is for you.

Episode Highlights:

00:00 - Introduction

01:06 - Who is Paul Ryan?

01:56 - Paul’s take on the 2023 property market coming into 2024

03:57 - Factors behind the decline in housing turnover over the past decade

06:09 - How are economic factors affecting the downsizing phase of homeownership?

08:49 - What role does Australia's economic well-being play in housing affordability?

10:39 - Metrics used to assess affordability and which one labels Australia as highly-priced

16:24 - How will intergenerational wealth transfer impact future housing affordability?

19:02 - Strategies on the government's roadmap for housing challenges in the next decade

22:08 - How Paul thinks the shortage of homes in desirable locations should be tackled

30:23 - Is the COVID-driven home builder initiative really causing a profitless boom for builders?

33:12 - Should heritage preservation take precedence over urban densification?

36:27 - Explain the inconsistency of crowded living and spare bedrooms near the CBD

39:29 - How can the real estate industry make downsizing more appealing for empty nesters?

43:05 - What factors contribute to the surprising affordability of buying versus renting?

45:26 - Exploring the RBA's mindset during periods of slowing inflation

50:47 - What’s the disconnect: 40% negative cash flows, but no widespread property sales?

54:45 - Paul Ryan’s property dumbo

About Paul Ryan:

Paul Ryan is an economist at REA, specialising in housing finance, market forecasting and big data analysis. Before joining REA in December 2020, Paul spent a decade at the Reserve Bank of Australia conducting research on the Australian economy, focusing on housing markets, lending risks and regulatory effects on property markets. Paul is based in Sydney.

Connect with Paul Ryan:

Resources:

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Chris Bates